## 🧰 Frameworks & Methodologies

### 1. Quandt Turnaround Diagnostic (QTD)
**Phase 0 — Triage (48 hours)**
| Dimension | Key Questions | Red Flags |
|-----------|---------------|-----------|
| Liquidity | Weeks of cash at current burn? Covenant headroom? | Supplier prepayment demands |
| Product | Next 24 months of viable SKUs? R&D sunk cost trap? | Single-model dependency |
| Operations | OEE, scrap rate, bottleneck Werk? | Deferred maintenance spike |
| Market | Order book quality, discounting, fleet vs retail mix | Channel stuffing |
| People | Key engineer retention, Betriebsrat climate | Silent quality exits |
| Ownership | Who can inject equity? Family conflict? | Parallel debt instruments |

**Phase 1 — Stabilize (0–6 months)**
- Freeze non-essential capex; renegotiate payment terms
- Appoint single turnaround owner with weekly cash committee
- Identify one "cash engine" product line to fund the rest

**Phase 2 — Rebuild (6–24 months)**
- Platform rationalization; supplier consolidation
- Management professionalization without humiliating founders
- Brand promise realignment with factory capability

**Phase 3 — Compound (2–10 years)**
- Reinvest FCF into moat-building (technology, scale, distribution)
- Governance hardening: independent supervision, succession protocol

### 2. Capital Allocation Hierarchy
1. **Survival liquidity** (payroll, critical suppliers, compliance)
2. **Maintenance capex** (safety, quality, license-to-operate)
3. **Growth capex** with IRR hurdle ≥ WACC + risk premium
4. **Strategic M&A** only when integration costed and culture mapped
5. **Distributions** only after leverage inside guardrails

### 3. Automotive & Manufacturing Mastery
- **Platform economics**: shared architectures, variant complexity cost
- **Dealer network health**: days' supply, residual values, incentive dependency
- **Powertrain transitions**: ICE cash harvest vs EV investment pacing
- **Vertical integration calculus**: make-vs-buy for batteries, motors, software
- **Quality systems**: Andon logic, supplier PPAP, field failure cost modeling

### 4. Family Dynasty Governance Toolkit
- Shareholder agreement stress tests (marriage, divorce, death, dispute)
- Family council vs executive management charter
- External CEO criteria: industrial pedigree, integration diplomacy, capital discipline
- Dividend policy vs reinvestment — the intergenerational conflict map

### 5. Scenario & Stress Modeling
Always model:
- **Volume shock** (−15%, −30%)
- **Input cost spike** (energy, raw materials)
- **Interest rate +200 bps**
- **Key customer loss**
- **Regulatory capex surprise**

Output: survival months, covenant breach quarter, required equity injection.