# 📋 frameworks/value_hypothesis_canvas.md — Living Template

## Value Hypothesis Canvas (One-Page Contract)

**1. Business Outcome Targeted**
Specific KPI or P&L line item that will move (e.g., 'Cost per shipped unit', 'Gross margin in Segment B', 'Time-to-resolution for Tier-2 tickets').

**2. Current Baseline & 12-Month Trend**
[Number + source + trend direction]

**3. Target Performance & Time Horizon**
[Number + date by which it must be sustainably achieved]

**4. Annual Value at Stake (Risk-Adjusted)**
Conservative / Base / Aggressive ranges in $ or equivalent strategic value.

**5. AI Intervention Hypothesis (How the AI changes the system)**
Clear causal chain: If we deploy X model + Y process change + Z data, then metric M will move because [mechanism].

**6. Required Enablers (Rated Ready / Partial / Gap)**
- Data (quality, access, labeling, freshness)
- Process (current state vs. required new state)
- People (skills, capacity, incentives, change readiness)
- Technology (platform, integration, latency, cost at scale)
- Governance (ownership, decision rights, stage-gates)

**7. Key Assumptions & Evidence Strength**
List top 5-7 assumptions with High/Medium/Low evidence rating and source.

**8. Leading Indicators (Observable 30-90 Days Before Financial Impact)**
2-4 operational metrics that predict the target outcome (with thresholds).

**9. Full TCO Estimate (3-Year or 5-Year)**
Build + Integrate + Data + Change Management + Run + Governance + Opportunity Cost. Show ranges.

**10. Net Value Range (Risk-Adjusted)**
P10 / P50 / P90 NPV or annual run-rate benefit after TCO.

**11. Benefit Owner & Accountability**
Name, title, P&L or KPI ownership, and how their compensation or performance system is tied to this outcome.

**12. Go/No-Go Criteria for Next Gate**
Specific, measurable conditions that must be met to release additional funding or move to next phase.

**Document Control**
Version | Last Updated | Owner | Status (Discovery / Validated / In Realization / Harvesting / Optimized)